The Indianapolis Colts have locked up a division title, the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs and a first-round postseason bye. Now all that's left are two meaningless games on the regular-season schedule beginning with the Houston Texans, who are slated to visit the RCA Dome on Sunday afternoon.
Indianapolis captured its fifth straight AFC South title and improved to 12-2 on the season with a 21-14 victory over the Oakland Raiders last weekend. The Colts have won 12 or more games five straight years and don't even need to play their starters for this matchup. However, head coach Tony Dungy noted that his regulars will play a significant amount of time versus Houston.
Dungy especially wants to see if injured wide receiver Marvin Harrison will be able to get some action before the playoffs start. Harrison has been out eight straight games because of a knee problem and could use some work before the postseason. Quarterback Peyton Manning, who was named to the Pro Bowl this week, said after Sunday's win against Oakland that he wants to get more acquainted with some of his targets, most notably rookie wideout Anthony Gonzalez.
Gonzalez has emerged as a factor the last few weeks as Harrison's replacement. Instead of just keying on Pro Bowl receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark, Manning has found a new go-to guy in the first-year player out of Ohio State, who is a big reason why the Colts have a first-round bye for the second time in three seasons.
Houston had its playoff hopes dashed after the Cleveland Browns posted a victory over the Buffalo Bills last weekend. The Texans improved to a franchise-tying 7-7 on the season with a win over Denver during Week 15, but the Browns improved to 9-5 to grab total control of the final playoff berth in the AFC.
The Texans, who never have been .500 so late in the season, may be without quarterback Matt Schaub again due to an injured left shoulder. The right- handed signal caller has missed the last two weeks, but backup Sage Rosenfels has been making a case for starting duties. Rosenfels has five touchdown passes over his last three games, including a three-TD performance against Tampa Bay on December 9.
Schaub is listed as questionable against Indianapolis.
The Texans' two games left on the schedule are against the playoff-bound Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars. Even if Houston still had life left for a postseason push, it would be tough to see the team winning out.
SERIES HISTORY
The Colts are 10-1 all-time against the Texans, including a 30-24 road win in Houston in Week 3. The Texans scored their only victory in the series with a 27-24 win at Reliant Stadium in Week 16 of last season, and are 0-5 in Indianapolis all-time. The Colts were 43-24 winners when the clubs met at the RCA Dome in 2006.
Dungy is 10-1 against the Texans all-time, while the Texans' Gary Kubiak is 1-2 against both Dungy and the Colts as a head coach.
WHEN THE TEXANS HAVE THE BALL
With Schaub (2,241 passing yards, 9 TD, 9 INT) on the infirmary list, Rosenfels will likely handle the quarterback duties for the third straight week. Rosenfels (1,323 passing yards, 12 TD, 8 INT) took over for Schaub during a Week 13 contest at Tennessee but was unable to lead the Texans to victory. However, he has since won back-to-back starts against Tampa Bay and Denver. In last week's win over the Broncos, he passed for 200 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Rosenfels is 3-0 as a starter this season and seems to be enjoying throwing passes to the likes of Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels and Kevin Walter. All three have at least 700 yards receiving this season. Johnson (47 receptions, 7 TD) is the best of the bunch and is the main reason why Houston is ninth in passing offense this season. Johnson missed some time with a knee injury, but hasn't missed a beat since returning. He has a touchdown catch in three straight games and has 80-plus receiving yards in six of the past seven contests. Johnson is averaging 100.4 receiving yards per game in 2007. Tight end Daniels (60 receptions, 2 TD) has two touchdown grabs over the last four games and leads the Texans with 739 receiving yards. Walter (61 receptions, 3 TD) and Andre Davis (31 receptions, 3 TD) both emerged on the scene when Johnson went down in Week 2 against Carolina.
Indianapolis has the best pass defense in the NFL, allowing 162.4 yards per game. The Colts' secondary is led by Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders (87 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT), who will be in charge of shutting down a Texans team that has compiled a team-record 21 touchdown passes this season. Sanders is a big factor against the run, but Houston will try to beat Indy on the road with the pass. Indianapolis didn't record any interceptions last week, but held the Raiders to just 104 yards passing. The Colts have two fine corners in Marlin Jackson (80 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Kelvin Hayden (77 tackles, 3 INT). The two combined for eight tackles last week against the Raiders and will match up well with Houston's trio of receivers. Hayden is third on the team in tackles and also has three interceptions. Safety Antoine Bethea (64 tackles, 4 INT) is tied for the team lead in picks but is expected to miss a second straight game with a left knee sprain. Johnson will be the main focus for the Indianapolis secondary, since he has four 100-yard outings in seven games played this season along with a career-high seven touchdowns.
The Texans don't have much of a running game with Ron Dayne (685 rushing yards, 4 TD) and rookie Darius Walker (112 rushing yards) highlighting the backfield. Dayne has been consistent the past few weeks and registered 67 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries against Denver. Houston is only the 22nd- ranked rushing team in the NFL and has been starting to use Walker on a regular basis. The former Notre Dame star had 46 yards on 16 carries in his 2007 debut, a win over Tampa Bay on December 9. Walker then collected 66 yards on 13 touches in Houston's victory over the Broncos. He has 29 carries in two games.
The Texans will try to expose Indianapolis' 18th-rated run defense on Sunday, but will have to shut down a tough interior line and talented linebackers. Defensive end Robert Mathis (32 tackles, 7.0 sacks) missed last week's game in Oakland with a knee injury, however, and is doubtful to return for Sunday's game. The Colts could use Mathis' pressure off the ends to shake Rosenfels off of his game. Indy is 26-4 when he records a sack, so his return can make a difference. Leading tackler and linebacker Gary Brackett (107 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 4 INTs) is a great run-stuffer and had five stops against Oakland, while rookie defensive tackle Ed Johnson (36 tackles, sack) has been a pleasant surprise for Dungy.
WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL
Four of the five Indianapolis players selected to this year's Pro Bowl are on the offense, starting with Manning (3,634 passing yards, 28 TD, 14 INT). The former league MVP has thrown 12 touchdown passes with four interceptions during the Colts' five-game winning streak. He passed for 276 yards with a TD and a pick against the Raiders and is on pace to eclipse the 4,000-yard passing mark for the second straight season. Manning, who has hit the 4,000- yard mark seven times since being drafted in 1998, owns an impressive 10-1 career record against the AFC South-rival Texans. He has torched Houston in his career, amassing 2,981 yards and 26 touchdowns with only four interceptions for a 118.5 passer rating. Manning, who has started the first 158 regular-season games of his career, will accompanied in Honolulu by center Jeff Saturday.
Manning's new target lately has been Gonzalez (35 receptions, 3 TD), who has been tearing up the scene. He is averaging a team-high 15.8 yards per catch this season and seems to be more comfortable with the offense lately, as he has 20 receptions for 345 yards and three touchdowns over the last four games. Wayne (82 receptions, 1,280 yards, 9 TD) was selected to his second straight Pro Bowl this week and leads the team in receptions and yards. He has been the No. 1 guy ever since Harrison (20 receptions, 1 TD) went down with a knee injury earlier in the season. Wayne is averaging 110.7 receiving yards per game versus division foes in 2007. Clark (51 receptions, 9 TD) is tied with Wayne for the team lead in touchdown receptions but was not added to the Pro Bowl roster. He has been having a great season, however, and has five TD catches in five starts against Houston.
The Texans are 18th against the pass this season and will have a tough time slowing down Indianapolis' high-powered offense. Cornerbacks Fred Bennett (49 tackles, 3 INT) and Von Hutchins (81 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1 INT) must have their A-game going on Sunday. They have been playing well over the last two weeks and combined for 14 stops in the recent win over the Broncos. Safety C.C. Brown (72 tackles, 1 INT) will be the last line of defense when any one of Manning's weapons gets open downfield. Houston may also get a glimpse of Harrison, if the wideout is able to play for the first time since October 22 against the Jaguars. Applying the pressure up front on Manning will be second-year defensive end Mario Williams (53 tackles, 13 sacks), who is second in the NFL in sacks and had 3 1/2 in the win over Denver. Williams will definitely try to disrupt Manning's timing in the pocket. He has a sack in each of the last five games and nine total over that span.
The fifth Pro Bowl player for the Colts is second-year running back Joseph Addai (1,019 rushing yards, 11 TDs), who has reached the 1,000-yard rushing mark in each of his first two years in the league. He had four 100-yard rushing outings in his first seven games this season, but his yards have dropped off over the last six weeks. Addai is averaging just 52.5 yards per game over that span with four touchdowns. However, he is always a threat with his ability to make defenders miss. In three career games against Houston, Addai is averaging 84.6 rushing yards a contest. The standout back is also a threat out of the backfield because of his good hands and owns 351 yards and three scores on 39 catches in 2007.
Houston is 20th against the rush and has talented linebacker and leading tackler DeMeco Ryans to try and shut down Addai. Ryans (120 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) had six stops and a pass defensed against the Broncos and has five games this season with double-digit results in tackles. Linebacker Morlon Greenwood (101 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) finished with a game-high 12 tackles last week. The two will be busy again on Sunday. Rookie defensive tackle Amobi Okoye (30 tackles, 5.5 sacks) is the main run-stuffer on the line and leads all AFC rookies in sacks this season.
FANTASY FOCUS
While most fantasy leagues have reached the postseason, the majority of the points on Sunday will be coming from a myriad of Indianapolis players. Manning is closing in on another fine fantasy season and is expected to play the entire meaningless game against a weak Houston defense. The same can actually be said for all of the Colts' offensive weapons, including wideouts Wayne and Gonzalez. Gonzalez has lit up the fantasy scene over the last few weeks, while tight end Clark is another must-start for Sunday. Addai, like Manning, is on the verge of ending a second consecutive strong fantasy season. He hasn't been racking up the yardage lately, but is finding his way in the end zone whether it's on the ground or catching passes. As for the Texans, wide receiver Andre Johnson is the only must-start for the team. Johnson has been phenomenal despite missing some time with a knee injury. If you're desperate for a quarterback and someone else snagged a better player on the waiver wire, it wouldn't hurt to go with Rosenfels, who has filled in nicely in place of injured starter Schaub.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Even though the Colts have nothing to play for in this game, they will still come out on top on Sunday. Dungy said his team will take the usual approach to the game like it does every week. Manning is enjoying another Pro Bowl season and will improve on his excellent career record against the Texans, thanks to the help of Addai and the recent emergence of Gonzalez. The Colts haven't missed a beat with Gonzalez filling in for the injured Harrison, who is expected to miss his ninth straight game and 10th in 11 weeks. Houston had the wind taken out of its sails when it was knocked out of the AFC playoff race last weekend. Williams was a Pro Bowl snub and will be playing with passion on Sunday. Too bad it won't be enough to lift Houston to a victory.
Source: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/